{ "design": "Walk-forward Weeks 2-9 receiving-yards estimates using only earlier player and team rows. Air-yard model = prior same-team player air-yards share × prior same-team mean team air yards × prior player receiving-yards/air-yard efficiency. Compared with full-history and same-team receiving-yard means.", "prediction_count": 1583, "overall": { "all_history_mean": { "n": 1583, "mae": 21.228, "rmse": 30.087, "bias": -0.646 }, "same_team_mean": { "n": 1583, "mae": 21.234, "rmse": 30.092, "bias": -0.64 }, "air_yards_share_model": { "n": 1583, "mae": 21.145, "rmse": 30.068, "bias": -1.612 } }, "by_prior_team_change": { "changed": { "all_history_mean": { "n": 2, "mae": 9.317, "rmse": 12.6, "bias": 9.317 }, "same_team_mean": { "n": 2, "mae": 14, "rmse": 19.799, "bias": 14 }, "air_yards_share_model": { "n": 2, "mae": 13.864, "rmse": 19.433, "bias": 13.864 } }, "stable": { "all_history_mean": { "n": 1581, "mae": 21.243, "rmse": 30.103, "bias": -0.658 }, "same_team_mean": { "n": 1581, "mae": 21.243, "rmse": 30.103, "bias": -0.658 }, "air_yards_share_model": { "n": 1581, "mae": 21.154, "rmse": 30.079, "bias": -1.632 } } }, "limitations": [ "Team aggregates sum only crosswalk-mapped rows; 12 NFLverse records remain unmapped.", "Air-yards share and efficiency are derived from nflverse; no official NFL route participation is available in this source.", "One receiving-yard row conflicts with Sleeper; this evaluation uses nflverse as labeled.", "Small Weeks 1-9 retrospective sample; exploratory only and not an untouched final holdout." ], "predictions": [ { "sleeper_id": "1479", "gsis_id": "00-0030279", "position": "WR", "team": "IND", "week": 2, "actual": 5, "all_history_mean": 32, "same_team_mean": 32, "air_yards_forecast": 30.089552238805982, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "IND" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "1466", "gsis_id": "00-0030506", "position": "TE", "team": "KC", "week": 2, "actual": 101, "all_history_mean": 71, "same_team_mean": 71, "air_yards_forecast": 62.45864661654137, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "KC" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "2133", "gsis_id": "00-0031381", "position": "WR", "team": "LA", "week": 2, "actual": 195, "all_history_mean": 26, "same_team_mean": 26, "air_yards_forecast": 26.40784313725494, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "LA" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "2216", "gsis_id": "00-0031408", "position": "WR", "team": "SF", "week": 2, "actual": 54, "all_history_mean": 49, "same_team_mean": 49, "air_yards_forecast": 49.328859060402756, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "SF" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "2449", "gsis_id": "00-0031588", "position": "WR", "team": "WAS", "week": 2, "actual": 47, "all_history_mean": 55, "same_team_mean": 55, "air_yards_forecast": 44.41640378548889, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "WAS" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "2505", "gsis_id": "00-0031610", "position": "TE", "team": "CAR", "week": 2, "actual": 33, "all_history_mean": 28, "same_team_mean": 28, "air_yards_forecast": 25.704918032786935, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CAR" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "3269", "gsis_id": "00-0032398", "position": "WR", "team": "BAL", "week": 2, "actual": 6, "all_history_mean": 53, "same_team_mean": 53, "air_yards_forecast": 52.99999999999992, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "BAL" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "3634", "gsis_id": "00-0032464", "position": "WR", "team": "CHI", "week": 2, "actual": 40, "all_history_mean": 84, "same_team_mean": 84, "air_yards_forecast": 74.25705329153591, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CHI" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "3286", "gsis_id": "00-0032775", "position": "WR", "team": "SF", "week": 2, "actual": 34, "all_history_mean": 50, "same_team_mean": 50, "air_yards_forecast": 50.335570469798675, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "SF" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "3155", "gsis_id": "00-0032951", "position": "WR", "team": "IND", "week": 2, "actual": 61, "all_history_mean": 0, "same_team_mean": 0, "air_yards_forecast": 0, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "IND" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "3214", "gsis_id": "00-0033090", "position": "TE", "team": "NE", "week": 2, "actual": 40, "all_history_mean": 26, "same_team_mean": 26, "air_yards_forecast": 24.11764705882355, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "NE" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4217", "gsis_id": "00-0033288", "position": "TE", "team": "SF", "week": 2, "actual": 80, "all_history_mean": 12, "same_team_mean": 12, "air_yards_forecast": 12.080536912751683, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "SF" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4199", "gsis_id": "00-0033293", "position": "RB", "team": "MIN", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 0, "same_team_mean": 0, "air_yards_forecast": 0, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "MIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4454", "gsis_id": "00-0033307", "position": "WR", "team": "ARI", "week": 2, "actual": 11, "all_history_mean": 75, "same_team_mean": 75, "air_yards_forecast": 75.00000000000023, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "ARI" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4147", "gsis_id": "00-0033526", "position": "RB", "team": "CIN", "week": 2, "actual": 16, "all_history_mean": 30, "same_team_mean": 30, "air_yards_forecast": 29.99999999999991, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4177", "gsis_id": "00-0033555", "position": "WR", "team": "NE", "week": 2, "actual": 18, "all_history_mean": 51, "same_team_mean": 51, "air_yards_forecast": 47.30769230769225, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "NE" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4066", "gsis_id": "00-0033881", "position": "TE", "team": "DEN", "week": 2, "actual": 17, "all_history_mean": 43, "same_team_mean": 43, "air_yards_forecast": 48.608695652173786, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "DEN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4033", "gsis_id": "00-0033885", "position": "TE", "team": "LAC", "week": 2, "actual": 9, "all_history_mean": 58, "same_team_mean": 58, "air_yards_forecast": 58.000000000000256, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "LAC" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4039", "gsis_id": "00-0033908", "position": "WR", "team": "SEA", "week": 2, "actual": 20, "all_history_mean": 35, "same_team_mean": 35, "air_yards_forecast": 34.99999999999998, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "SEA" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4037", "gsis_id": "00-0033921", "position": "WR", "team": "TB", "week": 2, "actual": 46, "all_history_mean": 40, "same_team_mean": 40, "air_yards_forecast": 36.92307692307696, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "TB" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5045", "gsis_id": "00-0034348", "position": "WR", "team": "DEN", "week": 2, "actual": 25, "all_history_mean": 11, "same_team_mean": 11, "air_yards_forecast": 12.434782608695647, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "DEN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5022", "gsis_id": "00-0034351", "position": "TE", "team": "PHI", "week": 2, "actual": 4, "all_history_mean": 77, "same_team_mean": 77, "air_yards_forecast": 73.57777777777774, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "PHI" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5001", "gsis_id": "00-0034383", "position": "TE", "team": "HOU", "week": 2, "actual": 140, "all_history_mean": 35, "same_team_mean": 35, "air_yards_forecast": 32.06521739130434, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "HOU" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5012", "gsis_id": "00-0034753", "position": "TE", "team": "BAL", "week": 2, "actual": 49, "all_history_mean": 49, "same_team_mean": 49, "air_yards_forecast": 49.000000000000064, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "BAL" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5008", "gsis_id": "00-0034798", "position": "TE", "team": "BAL", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 4, "same_team_mean": 4, "air_yards_forecast": 3.9999999999999916, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "BAL" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "4983", "gsis_id": "00-0034827", "position": "WR", "team": "BUF", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 100, "same_team_mean": 100, "air_yards_forecast": 93.73368146214099, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "BUF" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5947", "gsis_id": "00-0034960", "position": "WR", "team": "JAX", "week": 2, "actual": 28, "all_history_mean": 40, "same_team_mean": 40, "air_yards_forecast": 36.859504132231514, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "JAX" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5985", "gsis_id": "00-0034981", "position": "TE", "team": "HOU", "week": 2, "actual": 34, "all_history_mean": 15, "same_team_mean": 15, "air_yards_forecast": 13.742236024844715, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "HOU" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6271", "gsis_id": "00-0035208", "position": "WR", "team": "ATL", "week": 2, "actual": 3, "all_history_mean": 5, "same_team_mean": 5, "air_yards_forecast": 4.870129870129867, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "ATL" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5844", "gsis_id": "00-0035229", "position": "TE", "team": "MIN", "week": 2, "actual": 29, "all_history_mean": 36, "same_team_mean": 36, "air_yards_forecast": 35.18181818181819, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "MIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5973", "gsis_id": "00-0035249", "position": "TE", "team": "MIN", "week": 2, "actual": 24, "all_history_mean": 22, "same_team_mean": 22, "air_yards_forecast": 21.50000000000001, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "MIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5967", "gsis_id": "00-0035261", "position": "RB", "team": "TEN", "week": 2, "actual": 1, "all_history_mean": -1, "same_team_mean": -1, "air_yards_forecast": -0.8631578947368406, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "TEN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5846", "gsis_id": "00-0035640", "position": "WR", "team": "PIT", "week": 2, "actual": 27, "all_history_mean": 40, 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"TE", "team": "BUF", "week": 2, "actual": 5, "all_history_mean": 7, "same_team_mean": 7, "air_yards_forecast": 6.561357702349874, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "BUF" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "5872", "gsis_id": "00-0035719", "position": "WR", "team": "SF", "week": 2, "actual": 31, "all_history_mean": 48, "same_team_mean": 48, "air_yards_forecast": 48.32214765100688, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "SF" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7039", "gsis_id": "00-0035891", "position": "WR", "team": "LV", "week": 2, "actual": 24, "all_history_mean": 0, "same_team_mean": 0, "air_yards_forecast": 0, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "LV" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7002", "gsis_id": "00-0036040", "position": "TE", "team": "NO", "week": 2, "actual": 66, "all_history_mean": 54, "same_team_mean": 54, "air_yards_forecast": 51.98757763975141, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "NO" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7021", "gsis_id": "00-0036139", "position": "RB", "team": "PIT", "week": 2, "actual": 22, "all_history_mean": 6, "same_team_mean": 6, "air_yards_forecast": 5.719901719901721, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "PIT" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6865", "gsis_id": "00-0036244", "position": "TE", "team": "LA", "week": 2, "actual": 15, "all_history_mean": 6, "same_team_mean": 6, "air_yards_forecast": 6.09411764705882, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "LA" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6790", "gsis_id": "00-0036275", "position": "RB", "team": "CHI", "week": 2, "actual": 54, "all_history_mean": 10, "same_team_mean": 10, "air_yards_forecast": 8.840125391849561, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CHI" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6826", "gsis_id": "00-0036290", "position": "TE", "team": "CHI", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 35, "same_team_mean": 35, "air_yards_forecast": 30.940438871473315, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CHI" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7090", "gsis_id": "00-0036309", "position": "WR", "team": "NYG", "week": 2, "actual": 48, "all_history_mean": 27, "same_team_mean": 27, "air_yards_forecast": 27.000000000000107, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "NYG" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6794", "gsis_id": "00-0036322", "position": "WR", "team": "MIN", "week": 2, "actual": 55, "all_history_mean": 92, "same_team_mean": 92, "air_yards_forecast": 89.90909090909099, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "MIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6786", "gsis_id": "00-0036358", "position": "WR", "team": "DAL", "week": 2, "actual": 153, "all_history_mean": 44, "same_team_mean": 44, "air_yards_forecast": 34.459546925566336, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "DAL" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6783", "gsis_id": "00-0036407", "position": "WR", "team": "CLE", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 26, "same_team_mean": 26, "air_yards_forecast": 25.999999999999993, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CLE" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6801", "gsis_id": "00-0036410", "position": "WR", "team": "CIN", "week": 2, "actual": 95, "all_history_mean": 59, "same_team_mean": 59, "air_yards_forecast": 59.00000000000003, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "6931", "gsis_id": "00-0036425", "position": "RB", "team": "MIN", "week": 2, "actual": 12, "all_history_mean": 1, "same_team_mean": 1, "air_yards_forecast": 0.977272727272727, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "MIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7571", "gsis_id": "00-0036550", "position": "WR", "team": "BAL", "week": 2, "actual": 88, "all_history_mean": 0, "same_team_mean": 0, "air_yards_forecast": 0, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "BAL" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7536", "gsis_id": "00-0036590", "position": "TE", "team": "JAX", "week": 2, "actual": 7, "all_history_mean": 0, "same_team_mean": 0, "air_yards_forecast": 0, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "JAX" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7526", "gsis_id": "00-0036613", "position": "WR", "team": "DEN", "week": 2, "actual": 138, "all_history_mean": 2, "same_team_mean": 2, "air_yards_forecast": 2.260869565217392, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "DEN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7587", "gsis_id": "00-0036626", "position": "WR", "team": "WAS", "week": 2, "actual": 21, "all_history_mean": 0, "same_team_mean": 0, "air_yards_forecast": 0, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "WAS" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7828", "gsis_id": "00-0036637", "position": "TE", "team": "KC", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 5, "same_team_mean": 5, "air_yards_forecast": 4.398496240601502, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "KC" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7891", "gsis_id": "00-0036754", "position": "TE", "team": "DET", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 5, "same_team_mean": 5, "air_yards_forecast": 5, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "DET" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7842", "gsis_id": "00-0036887", "position": "TE", "team": "SF", "week": 2, "actual": 0, "all_history_mean": 19, "same_team_mean": 19, "air_yards_forecast": 19.127516778523525, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "SF" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7600", "gsis_id": "00-0036894", "position": "TE", "team": "PIT", "week": 2, "actual": 32, "all_history_mean": 46, "same_team_mean": 46, "air_yards_forecast": 43.852579852579865, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "PIT" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7564", "gsis_id": "00-0036900", "position": "WR", "team": "CIN", "week": 2, "actual": 75, "all_history_mean": 12, "same_team_mean": 12, "air_yards_forecast": 11.999999999999986, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "CIN" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7525", "gsis_id": "00-0036912", "position": "WR", "team": "PHI", "week": 2, "actual": 117, "all_history_mean": 53, "same_team_mean": 53, "air_yards_forecast": 50.64444444444443, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "PHI" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7547", "gsis_id": "00-0036963", "position": "WR", "team": "DET", "week": 2, "actual": 142, "all_history_mean": 67, "same_team_mean": 67, "air_yards_forecast": 66.99999999999991, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "DET" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7553", "gsis_id": "00-0036970", "position": "TE", "team": "ATL", "week": 2, "actual": 15, "all_history_mean": 0, "same_team_mean": 0, "air_yards_forecast": 0, "role_changed": false, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_teams": [ "ATL" ] }, { "sleeper_id": "7670", "gsis_id": "00-0036988", "position": "WR", "team": "BUF", "week": 2, "actual": 43, "all_history_mean": 34, "same_team_mean": 34, "air_yards_forecast": 31.869451697127996, "role_changed": 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