{ "design": "Expanding-window workload-to-points evaluation. Each target row is forecast from only earlier nflverse weekly player rows joined through a unique GSIS↔Sleeper ID. Workload is prior per-game attempts, targets and carries; player efficiency is opportunity-weighted over prior events. Role-aware sensitivity uses a predeclared 50/50 blend of full prior mean and last-three prior-game mean workload. Actual and forecast points apply Berry’s Dynasty scoring to pass, reception, receiving-yard/TD, rush-yard/TD and interception events only. This is not a full scoring projection.", "source_hashes": { "nflverse": "1bed8869f2723c0d4a5461fea8edaf249723193f7612330a87adb04f9b9cb512", "crosswalk": "e8ff95c64bc934b3be15ca78469dc4c213150b4447fab49a59ddd9b7205c2fad" }, "source": "nflverse weekly stats (CC BY 4.0) joined through DynastyProcess crosswalk; target weeks 2-9", "prediction_count": 2452, "overall": { "forecast": { "n": 2452, "mae": 4.77, "rmse": 6.777, "bias": -0.21 }, "role_aware_50_50": { "n": 2452, "mae": 4.793, "rmse": 6.795, "bias": -0.14 }, "historical_mean": { "n": 2452, "mae": 4.77, "rmse": 6.778, "bias": -0.208 }, "last_game": { "n": 2452, "mae": 5.549, "rmse": 7.963, "bias": -0.018 } }, "by_position": { "QB": { "forecast_ppr": { "n": 246, "mae": 6.656, "rmse": 8.7, "bias": 0.234 }, "role_aware_ppr": { "n": 246, "mae": 6.656, "rmse": 8.701, "bias": 0.297 }, "historical_mean_ppr": { "n": 246, "mae": 6.659, "rmse": 8.707, "bias": 0.243 }, "last_game_ppr": { "n": 246, "mae": 7.401, "rmse": 9.534, "bias": 0.347 } }, "RB": { "forecast_ppr": { "n": 620, "mae": 4.769, "rmse": 6.727, "bias": -0.224 }, "role_aware_ppr": { "n": 620, "mae": 4.764, "rmse": 6.701, "bias": -0.15 }, "historical_mean_ppr": { "n": 620, "mae": 4.769, "rmse": 6.727, "bias": -0.224 }, "last_game_ppr": { "n": 620, "mae": 5.397, "rmse": 7.881, "bias": 0.049 } }, "WR": { "forecast_ppr": { "n": 1036, "mae": 4.622, "rmse": 6.718, "bias": -0.396 }, "role_aware_ppr": { "n": 1036, "mae": 4.662, "rmse": 6.764, "bias": -0.315 }, "historical_mean_ppr": { "n": 1036, "mae": 4.622, "rmse": 6.718, "bias": -0.394 }, "last_game_ppr": { "n": 1036, "mae": 5.608, "rmse": 8.14, "bias": -0.158 } }, "TE": { "forecast_ppr": { "n": 550, "mae": 4.207, "rmse": 5.908, "bias": -0.044 }, "role_aware_ppr": { "n": 550, "mae": 4.238, "rmse": 5.932, "bias": 0.006 }, "historical_mean_ppr": { "n": 550, "mae": 4.207, "rmse": 5.908, "bias": -0.044 }, "last_game_ppr": { "n": 550, "mae": 4.782, "rmse": 6.869, "bias": 0.01 } } }, "role_aware_by_position": { "QB": { "n": 246, "mae": 6.656, "rmse": 8.701, "bias": 0.297 }, "RB": { "n": 620, "mae": 4.764, "rmse": 6.701, "bias": -0.15 }, "WR": { "n": 1036, "mae": 4.662, "rmse": 6.764, "bias": -0.315 }, "TE": { "n": 550, "mae": 4.238, "rmse": 5.932, "bias": 0.006 } }, "limitations": [ "Target/catch, yardage and touchdown event rates use only prior weeks and zero-inclusive nflverse counts.", "13 overlapping event values disagree with Sleeper snapshots; this evaluation uses nflverse as its stated third-party source and does not resolve those differences.", "No fumbles, two-point conversions, special teams, injury/availability, team/opponent context or uncertainty ranges are forecast.", "Not a current-week forecast or start/sit recommendation." ], "predictions": [ { "sleeper_id": "96", "gsis_id": "00-0023459", "position": "QB", "team": "PIT", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 12.54, "role_aware_ppr": 12.54, "actual_ppr": 6.98, "historical_mean_ppr": 12.54, "last_game_ppr": 12.54, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 40, "pass_yd": 221, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 3, "rush_yd": -3, "rush_td": 0 }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 40, "pass_yd": 221, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 3, "rush_yd": -3, "rush_td": 0 }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 39, "pass_yd": 187, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 1, "rec": 0, "rec_yd": 0, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 1, "rush_yd": 5, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": 5.525, "pass_td_per_attempt": 0.025, "interceptions_per_attempt": 0, "catch_rate": null, "receiving_yards_per_target": null, "receiving_td_per_target": null, "yards_per_carry": -1, "rushing_td_per_carry": 0 } }, { "sleeper_id": "421", "gsis_id": "00-0026498", "position": "QB", "team": "LA", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 5.1000000000000005, "role_aware_ppr": 5.1000000000000005, "actual_ppr": 27.979999999999997, "historical_mean_ppr": 5.1000000000000005, "last_game_ppr": 5.1000000000000005, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 25, "pass_yd": 155, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 1, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 2, "rush_yd": -1, "rush_td": 0 }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 25, "pass_yd": 155, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 1, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 2, "rush_yd": -1, "rush_td": 0 }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 31, "pass_yd": 327, "pass_td": 4, "pass_int": 1, "rec": 0, "rec_yd": 0, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yd": -1, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": 6.2, "pass_td_per_attempt": 0, "interceptions_per_attempt": 0.04, "catch_rate": null, "receiving_yards_per_target": null, "receiving_td_per_target": null, "yards_per_carry": -0.5, "rushing_td_per_carry": 0 } }, { "sleeper_id": "1166", "gsis_id": "00-0029604", "position": "QB", "team": "LV", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 15.799999999999999, "role_aware_ppr": 15.799999999999999, "actual_ppr": 21.220000000000002, "historical_mean_ppr": 15.799999999999999, "last_game_ppr": 15.799999999999999, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 30, "pass_yd": 160, "pass_td": 3, "pass_int": 2, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 5, "rush_yd": -6, "rush_td": 0 }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 30, "pass_yd": 160, "pass_td": 3, "pass_int": 2, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 5, "rush_yd": -6, "rush_td": 0 }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 29, "pass_yd": 253, "pass_td": 3, "pass_int": 1, "rec": 0, "rec_yd": 0, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yd": 1, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": 5.333333333333333, "pass_td_per_attempt": 0.1, "interceptions_per_attempt": 0.06666666666666667, "catch_rate": null, "receiving_yards_per_target": null, "receiving_td_per_target": null, "yards_per_carry": -1.2, "rushing_td_per_carry": 0 } }, { "sleeper_id": "1479", "gsis_id": "00-0030279", "position": "WR", "team": "IND", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 9.2, "role_aware_ppr": 9.2, "actual_ppr": 1.5, "historical_mean_ppr": 9.2, "last_game_ppr": 9.2, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 6, "rec_yd": 32, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 6, "rec_yd": 32, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 1, "rec_yd": 5, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": 0, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 1, "receiving_yards_per_target": 5.333333333333333, "receiving_td_per_target": 0, "yards_per_carry": null, "rushing_td_per_carry": null } }, { "sleeper_id": "1466", "gsis_id": "00-0030506", "position": "TE", "team": "KC", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 10.100000000000001, "role_aware_ppr": 10.100000000000001, "actual_ppr": 25.1, "historical_mean_ppr": 10.100000000000001, "last_game_ppr": 10.100000000000001, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 3, "rec_yd": 71, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 3, "rec_yd": 71, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 9, "rec_yd": 101, "rec_td": 1, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": 0, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 0.6, "receiving_yards_per_target": 14.2, "receiving_td_per_target": 0, "yards_per_carry": null, "rushing_td_per_carry": null } }, { "sleeper_id": "1373", "gsis_id": "00-0030565", "position": "QB", "team": "NYJ", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 9.299999999999999, "role_aware_ppr": 9.299999999999999, "actual_ppr": 15.580000000000002, "historical_mean_ppr": 9.299999999999999, "last_game_ppr": 9.299999999999999, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 24, "pass_yd": 215, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 6, "rush_yd": 7, "rush_td": 0 }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 24, "pass_yd": 215, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": null, "rec_yd": null, "rec_td": null, "rush_att": 6, "rush_yd": 7, "rush_td": 0 }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 41, "pass_yd": 247, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 0, "rec_yd": 0, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 5, "rush_yd": 17, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": 8.958333333333334, "pass_td_per_attempt": 0, "interceptions_per_attempt": 0, "catch_rate": null, "receiving_yards_per_target": null, "receiving_td_per_target": null, "yards_per_carry": 1.1666666666666667, "rushing_td_per_carry": 0 } }, { "sleeper_id": "2133", "gsis_id": "00-0031381", "position": "WR", "team": "LA", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 5.6, "role_aware_ppr": 5.6, "actual_ppr": 39.5, "historical_mean_ppr": 5.6, "last_game_ppr": 5.6, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 3, "rec_yd": 26, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 3, "rec_yd": 26, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 8, "rec_yd": 195, "rec_td": 2, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": 0, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 0.5, "receiving_yards_per_target": 4.333333333333333, "receiving_td_per_target": 0, "yards_per_carry": null, "rushing_td_per_carry": null } }, { "sleeper_id": "2216", "gsis_id": "00-0031408", "position": "WR", "team": "SF", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 16.9, "role_aware_ppr": 16.9, "actual_ppr": 8.4, "historical_mean_ppr": 16.9, "last_game_ppr": 16.9, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 6, "rec_yd": 49, "rec_td": 1, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 6, "rec_yd": 49, "rec_td": 1, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 3, "rec_yd": 54, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": 0, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 0.8571428571428571, "receiving_yards_per_target": 7, "receiving_td_per_target": 0.14285714285714285, "yards_per_carry": null, "rushing_td_per_carry": null } }, { "sleeper_id": "2449", "gsis_id": "00-0031588", "position": "WR", "team": "WAS", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 15.5, "role_aware_ppr": 15.5, "actual_ppr": 21.7, "historical_mean_ppr": 15.5, "last_game_ppr": 15.5, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 4, "rec_yd": 55, "rec_td": 1, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 4, "rec_yd": 55, "rec_td": 1, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 5, "rec_yd": 47, "rec_td": 2, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": 0, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 0.4444444444444444, "receiving_yards_per_target": 6.111111111111111, "receiving_td_per_target": 0.1111111111111111, "yards_per_carry": null, "rushing_td_per_carry": null } }, { "sleeper_id": "2505", "gsis_id": "00-0031610", "position": "TE", "team": "CAR", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 4.800000000000001, "role_aware_ppr": 4.800000000000001, "actual_ppr": 18.3, "historical_mean_ppr": 4.800000000000001, "last_game_ppr": 4.800000000000001, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 2, "rec_yd": 28, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 2, "rec_yd": 28, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 3, "rec_yd": 33, "rec_td": 2, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": 0, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 1, "receiving_yards_per_target": 14, "receiving_td_per_target": 0, "yards_per_carry": null, "rushing_td_per_carry": null } }, { "sleeper_id": "2359", "gsis_id": "00-0032104", "position": "RB", "team": "JAX", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 4.2, "role_aware_ppr": 4.2, "actual_ppr": 2.3000000000000003, "historical_mean_ppr": 4.2, "last_game_ppr": 4.2, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 1, "rec_yd": 0, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yd": 32, "rush_td": 0 }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 1, "rec_yd": 0, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yd": 32, "rush_td": 0 }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 1, "rec_yd": 2, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 3, "rush_yd": 11, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 1, "receiving_yards_per_target": 0, "receiving_td_per_target": 0, "yards_per_carry": 8, "rushing_td_per_carry": 0 } }, { "sleeper_id": "3269", "gsis_id": "00-0032398", "position": "WR", "team": "BAL", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 6.300000000000001, "role_aware_ppr": 6.300000000000001, "actual_ppr": 1.6, "historical_mean_ppr": 6.300000000000001, "last_game_ppr": 6.300000000000001, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 1, "rec_yd": 53, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "role_aware_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 1, "rec_yd": 53, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, "actual_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": 0, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rec": 1, "rec_yd": 6, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": 0, "rush_td": 0 }, "efficiency_rates": { "pass_yards_per_attempt": null, "pass_td_per_attempt": null, "interceptions_per_attempt": null, "catch_rate": 0.5, "receiving_yards_per_target": 26.5, "receiving_td_per_target": 0, "yards_per_carry": null, "rushing_td_per_carry": null } }, { "sleeper_id": "3634", "gsis_id": "00-0032464", "position": "WR", "team": "CHI", "week": 2, "forecast_ppr": 16.4, "role_aware_ppr": 16.4, "actual_ppr": 9, "historical_mean_ppr": 16.4, "last_game_ppr": 16.4, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_games": 1, "forecast_stats": { "pass_att": 0, "pass_yd": null, "pass_td": null, "pass_int": null, "rec": 8, "rec_yd": 84, "rec_td": 0, "rush_att": 0, "rush_yd": null, "rush_td": null }, 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