{ "design": "Expanding-window chronological evaluation. Each estimate uses only prior-week active player outcomes. Target outcomes include (a) rows with player-level offensive participation and (b) Sleeper rows with gms_active > 0 but no offensive participation, scored from the fields present in that row. Missing target rows and rows without participation evidence are not converted to zero. Target/future weeks never enter predictors.", "target_weeks": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ], "min_prior_active_games": 2, "prediction_count": 2522, "coverage": [ { "week": 3, "candidates_with_prior_activity": 350, "scored_active_records": 313, "scored_no_offensive_participation_records": 18, "missing_records": 19, "unverified_no_participation_records": 0 }, { "week": 4, "candidates_with_prior_activity": 393, "scored_active_records": 331, "scored_no_offensive_participation_records": 30, "missing_records": 31, "unverified_no_participation_records": 1 }, { "week": 5, "candidates_with_prior_activity": 426, "scored_active_records": 321, "scored_no_offensive_participation_records": 43, "missing_records": 62, "unverified_no_participation_records": 0 }, { "week": 6, "candidates_with_prior_activity": 438, "scored_active_records": 295, "scored_no_offensive_participation_records": 57, "missing_records": 86, "unverified_no_participation_records": 0 }, { "week": 7, "candidates_with_prior_activity": 454, "scored_active_records": 302, "scored_no_offensive_participation_records": 57, "missing_records": 94, "unverified_no_participation_records": 1 }, { "week": 8, "candidates_with_prior_activity": 471, "scored_active_records": 306, "scored_no_offensive_participation_records": 69, "missing_records": 96, "unverified_no_participation_records": 0 }, { "week": 9, "candidates_with_prior_activity": 489, "scored_active_records": 299, "scored_no_offensive_participation_records": 81, "missing_records": 109, "unverified_no_participation_records": 0 } ], "overall": { "rolling_mean": { "n": 2522, "mae": 4.445, "rmse": 6.334, "bias": 0.397 }, "last_active_game": { "n": 2522, "mae": 5.078, "rmse": 7.579, "bias": 0.448 }, "position_mean": { "n": 2522, "mae": 5.98, "rmse": 7.583, "bias": 0.436 } }, "active_participation_only": { "rolling_mean": { "n": 2167, "mae": 4.486, "rmse": 6.377, "bias": -0.224 }, "last_active_game": { "n": 2167, "mae": 5.363, "rmse": 7.797, "bias": -0.016 }, "position_mean": { "n": 2167, "mae": 5.746, "rmse": 7.522, "bias": -0.706 } }, "by_position": { "QB": { "rolling_mean": { "n": 236, "mae": 6.965, "rmse": 8.799, "bias": 1.893 }, "last_active_game": { "n": 236, "mae": 7.033, "rmse": 9.147, "bias": 1.32 }, "position_mean": { "n": 236, "mae": 7.837, "rmse": 9.535, "bias": 1.223 } }, "RB": { "rolling_mean": { "n": 590, "mae": 4.744, "rmse": 6.571, "bias": 0.222 }, "last_active_game": { "n": 590, "mae": 5.456, "rmse": 7.971, "bias": 0.549 }, "position_mean": { "n": 590, "mae": 6.679, "rmse": 8.318, "bias": 0.34 } }, "WR": { "rolling_mean": { "n": 1008, "mae": 4.498, "rmse": 6.38, "bias": 0.337 }, "last_active_game": { "n": 1008, "mae": 5.386, "rmse": 7.968, "bias": 0.427 }, "position_mean": { "n": 1008, "mae": 6.11, "rmse": 7.649, "bias": 0.503 } }, "TE": { "rolling_mean": { "n": 688, "mae": 3.246, "rmse": 4.882, "bias": 0.124 }, "last_active_game": { "n": 688, "mae": 3.634, "rmse": 5.86, "bias": 0.094 }, "position_mean": { "n": 688, "mae": 4.552, "rmse": 5.876, "bias": 0.15 } } }, "predictions": [ { "player_id": "96", "position": "QB", "week": 3, "actual": 23.68, "outcome_type": "offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": 62, "actual_scoring_inputs": { "pass_int": 1, "pass_yd": 292, "pass_td": 3, "rush_yd": 10 }, "prior_active_games": 2, "prior_weeks": [ 1, 2 ], "mean": 8.76, "last_active": 4.98, "position_mean": 14.707792207792211, "prior_points": [ 12.54, 4.98 ] }, { "player_id": "421", "position": "QB", "week": 3, "actual": 22.900000000000002, "outcome_type": "offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": 86, "actual_scoring_inputs": { "pass_int": 2, "pass_yd": 390, "pass_td": 2, "rush_yd": 13 }, "prior_active_games": 2, "prior_weeks": [ 1, 2 ], "mean": 16.54, "last_active": 27.979999999999997, "position_mean": 14.707792207792211, "prior_points": [ 5.1000000000000005, 27.979999999999997 ] }, { "player_id": "1166", "position": "QB", "week": 3, "actual": 22.220000000000002, 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0.30000000000000004, 0, -0.5, 1.5, 8.7 ] }, { "player_id": "13541", "position": "WR", "week": 9, "actual": 0, "outcome_type": "active_no_offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": null, "actual_scoring_inputs": {}, "prior_active_games": 2, "prior_weeks": [ 2, 3 ], "mean": 0, "last_active": 0, "position_mean": 6.640800696257606, "prior_points": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "player_id": "13580", "position": "TE", "week": 9, "actual": 0, "outcome_type": "active_no_offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": null, "actual_scoring_inputs": {}, "prior_active_games": 2, "prior_weeks": [ 2, 4 ], "mean": 0, "last_active": 0, "position_mean": 4.257178841309826, "prior_points": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "player_id": "13770", "position": "WR", "week": 9, "actual": 0, "outcome_type": "offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": 15, "actual_scoring_inputs": {}, "prior_active_games": 7, "prior_weeks": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "mean": 1.1142857142857143, "last_active": 2.6, "position_mean": 6.640800696257606, "prior_points": [ 0, 5.2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.6 ] }, { "player_id": "13825", "position": "WR", "week": 9, "actual": 0, "outcome_type": "offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": 5, "actual_scoring_inputs": {}, "prior_active_games": 4, "prior_weeks": [ 3, 4, 5, 7 ], "mean": 0, "last_active": 0, "position_mean": 6.640800696257606, "prior_points": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, { "player_id": "13827", "position": "TE", "week": 9, "actual": 0, "outcome_type": "active_no_offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": null, "actual_scoring_inputs": {}, "prior_active_games": 3, "prior_weeks": [ 3, 5, 8 ], "mean": 0, "last_active": 0, "position_mean": 4.257178841309826, "prior_points": [ 0, 0, 0 ] }, { "player_id": "14026", "position": "RB", "week": 9, "actual": 0, "outcome_type": "offensive_participation", "target_games_active": 1, "target_offensive_snaps": 24, "actual_scoring_inputs": {}, "prior_active_games": 7, "prior_weeks": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 ], "mean": 0.39999999999999997, "last_active": 0, "position_mean": 7.8782544378698205, "prior_points": [ 0, 2.8, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } ], "limitations": [ "A Sleeper gms_active row without recorded offensive participation is treated as an observed zero-offense week; this is not a verified injury/inactive designation.", "Player rows absent from a weekly snapshot remain missing/unknown; no bye or zero score is inferred.", "Point means are descriptive benchmarks and do not model current role, injuries, matchup, route participation, or uncertainty calibration.", "Scores use the supplied league scoring map; no current-week forecast is produced." ], "source": "SHA-256-verified Sleeper weekly snapshots Weeks 1-9 and verified Berry’s Dynasty scoring settings", "source_hashes": { "1": "0e2453cc8cbb5315001d5f990f7f5a8e934d675ee0d809a9dde5d491f1d2d5ff", "2": 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Every candidate uses only observed prior-week player event fields. A Sleeper row with gms_active > 0 and no offensive participation contributes an explicitly labeled zero. Missing event fields on offensive-participation rows and missing player rows are not converted to zero. These are descriptive historical workload benchmarks, not live projections.", "target_weeks": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ], "components": [ { "signal": "pass_attempts", "field": "pass_att", "positions": [ "QB" ], "minimum_prior_observations": 1, "prediction_count": 602, "overall": { "rolling_player_mean": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.844, "rmse": 8.948, "bias": -0.525 }, "recent_3_mean": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.892, "rmse": 9.121, "bias": -0.349 }, "ewma_alpha_0_5": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.697, "rmse": 8.843, "bias": -0.403 }, "last_observed_event": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.874, "rmse": 9.557, "bias": -0.223 }, "position_mean": { "n": 602, "mae": 15.342, "rmse": 16.656, "bias": -0.4 } }, "by_position": { "QB": { "rolling_player_mean": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.844, "rmse": 8.948, "bias": -0.525 }, "recent_3_mean": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.892, "rmse": 9.121, "bias": -0.349 }, "ewma_alpha_0_5": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.697, "rmse": 8.843, "bias": -0.403 }, "last_observed_event": { "n": 602, "mae": 4.874, "rmse": 9.557, "bias": -0.223 }, "position_mean": { "n": 602, "mae": 15.342, "rmse": 16.656, "bias": -0.4 } } }, "coverage": [ { "week": 1, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 0, "scored_outcomes": 0, "missing_target_rows": 0, "missing_event_fields": 0, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 2, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 82, "scored_outcomes": 75, "missing_target_rows": 5, "missing_event_fields": 2, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 3, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 88, "scored_outcomes": 79, "missing_target_rows": 9, "missing_event_fields": 0, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 4, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 92, "scored_outcomes": 81, "missing_target_rows": 10, "missing_event_fields": 1, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 5, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 95, "scored_outcomes": 75, "missing_target_rows": 16, "missing_event_fields": 4, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 6, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 97, "scored_outcomes": 73, "missing_target_rows": 23, "missing_event_fields": 1, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 7, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 98, "scored_outcomes": 69, "missing_target_rows": 26, "missing_event_fields": 3, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 8, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 100, "scored_outcomes": 76, "missing_target_rows": 22, "missing_event_fields": 2, "unverified_target_rows": 0 }, { "week": 9, "eligible_with_prior_observations": 100, "scored_outcomes": 74, "missing_target_rows": 23, "missing_event_fields": 3, "unverified_target_rows": 0 } ], "predictions": [ { "player_id": "19", "position": "QB", "week": 2, "signal": "pass_attempts", "field": "pass_att", "actual": 0, "actual_status": "zero_no_offensive_participation", "prediction": 0, "last_observed": 0, "recent_3_mean": 0, "ewma_alpha_0_5": 0, "position_mean": 12.121951219512194, "prior_observations": 1, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_event_values": [ 0 ] }, { "player_id": "96", "position": "QB", "week": 2, 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"player_id": "829", "position": "QB", "week": 2, "signal": "pass_attempts", "field": "pass_att", "actual": 0, "actual_status": "zero_no_offensive_participation", "prediction": 0, "last_observed": 0, "recent_3_mean": 0, "ewma_alpha_0_5": 0, "position_mean": 12.121951219512194, "prior_observations": 1, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_event_values": [ 0 ] }, { "player_id": "1166", "position": "QB", "week": 2, "signal": "pass_attempts", "field": "pass_att", "actual": 29, "actual_status": "field_observed", "prediction": 30, "last_observed": 30, "recent_3_mean": 30, "ewma_alpha_0_5": 30, "position_mean": 12.121951219512194, "prior_observations": 1, "prior_weeks": [ 1 ], "prior_event_values": [ 30 ] }, { "player_id": "1373", "position": "QB", "week": 2, "signal": "pass_attempts", "field": "pass_att", "actual": 41, "actual_status": "field_observed", "prediction": 24, "last_observed": 24, "recent_3_mean": 24, "ewma_alpha_0_5": 24, "position_mean": 12.121951219512194, "prior_observations": 1, 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"rush_att", "actual": 0, "actual_status": "zero_no_offensive_participation", "prediction": 0, "last_observed": 0, "recent_3_mean": 0, "ewma_alpha_0_5": 0, "position_mean": 4.6990459670424976, "prior_observations": 1, "prior_weeks": [ 8 ], "prior_event_values": [ 0 ] } ] } ], "limitations": [ "Sleeper weekly stats are a supplemental, sparsely documented data source; component-specific coverage is shown and absent event fields are not filled.", "A gms_active row without offensive participation is used as a zero opportunity observation; this is not an injury, inactive, or lineup status.", "Player identities use the current Sleeper directory and may differ from historical team/role assignments.", "No player role changes, team context, injuries, routes, matchups, or uncertainty calibration are modeled." ] } }